MUMBAI, March 2026 — As the Nifty scales back nearly 12% from its recent peaks, a familiar wave of panic has hit retail portfolios. However, according to Gaurav Dua, Head of Capital Market Strategy at Standard Chartered Securities India, this isn’t the end of the bull run—it’s a historical pattern repeating itself.

In a deep-dive session with Mint, Dua breaks down why the “noise” of global war and inflation is often the best time to build wealth, provided you stop trying to outsmart the clock.

The 10% Pullback: A Feature, Not a Bug

For many new investors, a double-digit drop feels like a structural collapse. Dua reframes this as a “normal” annual event. Looking at the decade spanning 2016 to 2025, the Indian market faced demonetization, a global pandemic, 40-year high inflation in the US, and multiple wars.

Yet, the Nifty delivered a 13% CAGR over that period. “If you stayed the course, your money grew 3.5 times in the Nifty alone,” Dua noted. “If you had a balanced portfolio of large, mid, and small caps, that growth was 5.5 times.” The takeaway? The market rewards time spent, not timing the entry.

The “Core and Satellite” Strategy

The biggest mistake retail investors make during volatility is “skewing” their portfolio—dumping everything into one hot sector or market cap. Dua suggests a disciplined split:

• The Core (50–70%): Large-cap, steady compounders that weather the storm.
• The Satellite (30–50%): Bottom-up picks from the broader market (mid and small caps) to provide the “alpha” or extra growth.

He warned that 70% of listed stocks on the NSE have currently fallen by more than 30% from their peaks. Chasing momentum in these zones without a balanced foundation is where most individual investors lose their shirts.

Winners and Losers of the West Asia Conflict

With crude oil hovering around $103–$104, the war in West Asia is the primary “noise” currently drowning out domestic growth. While this creates a “margin squeeze” for companies reliant on oil derivatives—like paints and ceramic tiles—it creates clear winners elsewhere:

• Refiners and Upstream Players: Private sector refineries are benefiting from the closure of Middle Eastern capacities.
• The IT Services Pivot: As the rupee feels the pressure of high energy imports, exporting companies (especially in tech) stand to gain.
• The AI Power Play: A surprising beneficiary is the Indian power transmission sector. As global investors look to monetize AI, the massive energy needs of data centers are turning Indian utility and EPC companies into structural growth stories.

Valuations: The Froth has Cleared

The most encouraging sign for 2026 is that the “expensive” tag on Indian equities is finally fading. Since late 2024, valuations have moderated by roughly 20–22%.

Dua points out that while the FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) were selling due to high prices and a “mid-cycle slowdown” in 2025, those reasons are now vanishing. With a government stimulus of ₹6.5 lakh crore beginning to reflect in the economy, the fundamental “bottoming out” of earnings is likely already underway.

The Bottom Line

Investing in equities should be treated like investing in gold or real estate: you don’t check the price every hour. “Our grandfathers never looked at property prices every week,” Dua reminded. In an economy growing at 7–7.5% with stable domestic macros, the current volatility is simply the market “removing speculative froth” to make room for the next leg of growth.